Selected outcome
Z.ai
1%
Z.ai · 1%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
AnthropicWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
36%
Open · $0 24h · $1,903 vol
Bid 35¢ · Ask 37¢
MetaWill Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
10%
Open · $32 24h · $249 vol
Bid 9¢ · Ask 11¢
GoogleWill Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
50%
Open · $284 24h · $1,835 vol
Bid 48¢ · Ask 51¢
MoonshotWill Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $137 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 1¢
OpenAIWill OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
3%
Open · $0 24h · $155 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 5.8¢
AlibabaWill Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
8%
Open · $0 24h · $157 vol
wide spread <1–11%
Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 10.5¢
SpaceXAIWill SpaceXAI have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
3%
Open · $0 24h · $135 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 4.8¢
Z.aiWill Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $145 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 1¢
BaiduWill Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $137 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 1¢
XiaomiWill Xiaomi have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $145 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 1¢
DeepSeekWill DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
3%
Open · $0 24h · $137 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 5.7¢
ByteDanceWill ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $110 vol
Ask 1¢
MiniMaxWill MiniMax have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
<1%
Open · $0 24h · $133 vol
last
Ask 1¢
ThinkyWill Thinky have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
2%
Open · $0 24h · $149 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 3¢
MeituanWill Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $177 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 1¢
MistralWill Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
<1%
Open · $0 24h · $101 vol
last
Ask 1¢
AmazonWill Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $137 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.9¢
NvidiaWill Nvidia have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
<1%
Open · $0 24h · $101 vol
last
Ask 1¢
TencentWill Tencent have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
5%
Open · $0 24h · $139 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 10.3¢
StepFunWill StepFun have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
4%
Open · $0 24h · $126 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 7.8¢
MicrosoftWill Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
5%
Open · $0 24h · $182 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 9.8¢
Company AWill Company A have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company B
Will Company B have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company C
Will Company C have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company D
Will Company D have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company E
Will Company E have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company F
Will Company F have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company G
Will Company G have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company H
Will Company H have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company I
Will Company I have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company J
Will Company J have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company K
Will Company K have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company L
Will Company L have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Company M
Will Company M have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
- Other
Will any other company have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
No quote
Open · not taking orders · $0 24h · $0 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".