Selected outcome
Greece
wide spread 4–19%
19%
Greece · 19%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
UKWill the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
13%
Open · $0 24h · $547 vol
Bid 8¢ · Ask 17¢
FranceWill France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
10%
Open · $50 24h · $14k vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 14¢
USWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
27%
Open · $0 24h · $20k vol
Bid 26¢ · Ask 28¢
NetherlandsWill the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
5%
Open · $0 24h · $16k vol
Bid 4¢ · Ask 5¢
GreeceWill Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
19%
Open · $0 24h · $86 vol
wide spread 4–19%
Bid 3.5¢ · Ask 18.9¢
ItalyWill Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $86 vol
wide spread 3–28%
Bid 3¢ · Ask 28¢
GermanyWill Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
9%
Open · $0 24h · $39 vol
Bid 5¢ · Ask 12¢
AustraliaWill Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $24 vol
wide spread 6–19%
Bid 6¢ · Ask 19¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
