Selected outcome
Alaska
19%
Alaska · 19%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Michigan
Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
13%
Open · $0 24h · $2,165 vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 14¢
- Ohio (Special)
Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
16%
Open · $15 24h · $1,985 vol
wide spread 2–21%
Bid 1.5¢ · Ask 21.3¢
- New Hampshire
Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
8%
Open · $0 24h · $657 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 9¢
- Nebraska
Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
23%
Open · $0 24h · $1,294 vol
wide spread 4–28%
Bid 4¢ · Ask 28¢
- Virginia
Will the Virginia 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
4%
Open · $0 24h · $1,108 vol
Bid 2.7¢ · Ask 4.7¢
- New Mexico
Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
3%
Open · $0 24h · $504 vol
Bid 2.5¢ · Ask 2.7¢
- Florida (Special)
Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
11%
Open · $0 24h · $128 vol
Bid 10¢ · Ask 11¢
- North Carolina
Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
4%
Open · $0 24h · $689 vol
Bid 2.5¢ · Ask 6¢
- Georgia
Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
6%
Open · $0 24h · $1,258 vol
Bid 5.1¢ · Ask 7.5¢
- Minnesota
Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
5%
Open · $0 24h · $1,006 vol
Bid 2.3¢ · Ask 6.9¢
- Montana
Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
21%
Open · $48 24h · $396 vol
wide spread 10–56%
Bid 10.1¢ · Ask 55.8¢
- Mississippi
Will the Mississippi 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
7%
Open · $20 24h · $749 vol
Bid 5.1¢ · Ask 9.7¢
- South Carolina
Will the South Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
9%
Open · $0 24h · $738 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 11¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.