Selected outcome
Mojtaba Khamenei
2%
Mojtaba Khamenei · 2%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
Donald TrumpWill Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
10%
Open · $1,290 24h · $81k vol
Bid 9.7¢ · Ask 10.2¢
Marco RubioWill Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
9%
Open · $0 24h · $57k vol
Bid 8¢ · Ask 9¢
J.D. VanceWill J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
20%
Open · $641 24h · $89k vol
Bid 19¢ · Ask 21¢
Pete HegsethWill Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
5%
Open · $0 24h · $26k vol
Bid 4¢ · Ask 5¢
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
22%
Open · $17 24h · $135k vol
Bid 21¢ · Ask 23¢
Mojtaba KhameneiWill Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
2%
Open · $0 24h · $32k vol
Bid 1.7¢ · Ask 3¢
Masoud PezeshkianWill Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
13%
Open · $0 24h · $81k vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 13¢
Majid Takht-RavanchiWill Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
27%
Open · $1,936 24h · $43k vol
Bid 26¢ · Ask 27¢
Kazem GharibabadiWill Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
23%
Open · $26 24h · $43k vol
Bid 22¢ · Ask 23¢
Ahmad VahidiWill Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
4%
Open · $0 24h · $43k vol
Bid 4.3¢ · Ask 4.4¢
Esmail QaaniWill Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
3%
Open · $0 24h · $20k vol
Bid 2.6¢ · Ask 3.3¢
Badr bin Hamad Al BusaidiWill Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
14%
Open · $0 24h · $75k vol
Bid 14¢ · Ask 15¢
Ishaq DarWill Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
19%
Open · $464 24h · $78k vol
Bid 18¢ · Ask 19¢
Rafael GrossiWill Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
17%
Open · $0 24h · $72k vol
Bid 16¢ · Ask 17¢
Nick StewartWill Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
27%
Open · $2,435 24h · $53k vol
Bid 26¢ · Ask 27¢
Mohammed bin SalmanWill Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
2%
Open · $114 24h · $38k vol
Bid 0.7¢ · Ask 3.6¢
Jared KushnerWill Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
35%
Open · $153 24h · $16k vol
Bid 34¢ · Ask 36¢
Steve WitkoffWill Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
35%
Open · $187 24h · $101k vol
Bid 34¢ · Ask 36¢
Abbas AraghchiWill Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
32%
Open · $397 24h · $20k vol
Bid 31¢ · Ask 33¢
Palmer LuckeyWill Palmer Luckey attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
2%
Open · $0 24h · $3,160 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 3.3¢
Newt GingrichWill Newt Gingrich attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
2%
Open · $0 24h · $3,700 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 4.3¢
Elon MuskWill Elon Musk attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
3%
Open · $67 24h · $6,364 vol
Bid 1.6¢ · Ask 4.5¢
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al ThaniWill Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
29%
Open · $375 24h · $100k vol
Bid 28¢ · Ask 30¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.