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Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Open

Selected outcome

Vladimir Putin

3%

Vladimir Putin · 3%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • Tucker Carlson

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by October 31, 2026?

    35%

    Open · $40 24h · $9,105 vol

    wide spread 28–62%

    Bid 28¢ · Ask 62¢

    Open full market view →
  • Candace Owens

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by October 31, 2026?

    14%

    Open · $25 24h · $8,241 vol

    Bid 12¢ · Ask 17¢

    Open full market view →
  • Pope Leo XIV

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by October 31, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $0 24h · $2,532 vol

    Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 5.1¢

    Open full market view →
  • Vladimir Putin

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $0 24h · $1,467 vol

    Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 4.7¢

    Open full market view →
  • Benjamin Netanyahu

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?

    6%

    Open · $68 24h · $1,642 vol

    Bid 3¢ · Ask 9¢

    Open full market view →
  • J.D. Vance

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by October 31, 2026?

    2%

    Open · $30 24h · $2,448 vol

    Bid 0.5¢ · Ask 4.3¢

    Open full market view →
  • Xi Jinping

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by October 31, 2026?

    1%

    Open · $0 24h · $553 vol

    Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 2¢

    Open full market view →
  • Andy Burnham

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Andy Burnham by October 31, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $0 24h · $815 vol

    Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 5¢

    Open full market view →
  • Elon Musk

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by October 31, 2026?

    2%

    Open · $10 24h · $442 vol

    Bid 0.5¢ · Ask 3.4¢

    Open full market view →
  • Zohran Mamdani

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026?

    15%

    Open · $280 24h · $7,258 vol

    wide spread 13–30%

    Bid 13¢ · Ask 30¢

    Open full market view →
  • Emmanuel Macron

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by October 31, 2026?

    10%

    Open · $152 24h · $1,375 vol

    wide spread 6–32%

    Bid 5.5¢ · Ask 31.9¢

    Open full market view →
  • Friedrich Merz

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by October 31, 2026?

    11%

    Open · $0 24h · $3,388 vol

    Bid 9¢ · Ask 13¢

    Open full market view →
  • Kaitlan Collins

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026?

    82%

    Open · $26 24h · $4,319 vol

    Bid 81¢ · Ask 82.6¢

    Open full market view →
  • Kevin Warsh

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?

    4%

    Open · $0 24h · $313 vol

    Bid 3¢ · Ask 4¢

    Open full market view →
  • Stephen Colbert

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Stephen Colbert by October 31, 2026?

    20%

    Open · $0 24h · $38 vol

    Bid 19¢ · Ask 21¢

    Open full market view →
  • J.B. Pritzker

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.B. Pritzker by October 31, 2026?

    No quote

    Open · $0 24h · $717 vol

    wide spread 49–90%

    Bid 49.1¢ · Ask 89.9¢

    Open full market view →
  • Mark Carney

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?

    No quote

    Open · $0 24h · $3,155 vol

    wide spread 22–41%

    Bid 22¢ · Ask 41¢

    Open full market view →
  • Hillary Clinton

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hillary Clinton by October 31, 2026?

    No quote

    Open · $100 24h · $5,576 vol

    wide spread 37–58%

    Bid 37¢ · Ask 58¢

    Open full market view →
  • Hakeem Jeffries

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?

    66%

    Open · $158 24h · $5,469 vol

    wide spread 57–71%

    Bid 57¢ · Ask 71¢

    Open full market view →
  • Masoud Pezeshkian

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Masoud Pezeshkian by October 31, 2026?

    4%

    Open · $0 24h · $214 vol

    Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 5.9¢

    Open full market view →
  • Mike Rogers

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mike Rogers by October 31, 2026?

    9%

    Open · $0 24h · $569 vol

    Bid 7¢ · Ask 10¢

    Open full market view →
  • Ken Paxton

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?

    22%

    Open · $108 24h · $4,346 vol

    Bid 20¢ · Ask 23¢

    Open full market view →
  • Dario Amodei

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?

    16%

    Open · $0 24h · $40 vol

    Bid 14¢ · Ask 18¢

    Open full market view →

Resolved

Event statistics
24h vol
$997
Volume
$151k
Liquidity
$5,974
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

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