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Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

Open

Selected outcome

November 30

5%

November 30 · 5%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • October 31

    Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?

    2%

    Open · $218 24h · $88k vol

    Bid 1.2¢ · Ask 2.2¢

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  • March 31, 2027

    Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?

    36%

    Open · $713 24h · $23k vol

    Bid 35¢ · Ask 37¢

    Open full market view →
  • June 30, 2027

    Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?

    59%

    Open · $24 24h · $75k vol

    Bid 58¢ · Ask 59¢

    Open full market view →
  • November 30

    Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by November 30, 2026?

    5%

    Open · $0 24h · $1,503 vol

    Bid 5.1¢ · Ask 5.2¢

    Open full market view →
  • December 31

    Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

    13%

    Open · $1,691 24h · $1.1M vol

    Bid 12¢ · Ask 13¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
$2,646
Volume
$2.1M
Liquidity
$85k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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