Selected outcome
4.91% or below
4.91% or below
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 23, 3:30 PM ET
- Resolution source
- U.S. Department of the Treasury (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- 4.88% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.89% by Oct 23, 2026?
1%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
last
Ask 4¢
- 4.89% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.90% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 11¢
- 4.9% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.91% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 12¢
- 4.91% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.92% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 12¢
- 4.92% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.93% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 13¢
- 4.93% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.94% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 13¢
- 4.94% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.95% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 14¢
- 4.95% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.96% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 15¢
- 4.96% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.97% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 16¢
- 4.97% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.98% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 18¢
- 4.98% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.99% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 20¢
- 4.99% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.00% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 1–23%
Bid 1¢ · Ask 23¢
- 5% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.01% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 3–26%
Bid 3¢ · Ask 26¢
- 5.01% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.02% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 6–30%
Bid 6¢ · Ask 30¢
- 5.02% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.03% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 9–34%
Bid 9¢ · Ask 34¢
- 5.03% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.04% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 11–38%
Bid 11¢ · Ask 38¢
- 5.04% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.05% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 15–41%
Bid 15¢ · Ask 41¢
- 5.05% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.06% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 19–47%
Bid 19¢ · Ask 47¢
- 5.06% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.07% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 24–53%
Bid 24¢ · Ask 53¢
- 5.07% or below
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.08% by Oct 23, 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$76 vol
wide spread 31–60%
Bid 31¢ · Ask 60¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 23, 3:30 PM ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.92% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.