Selected outcome
4.87% or below
last
28%
4.87% or below · 28%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 30, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- U.S. Department of the Treasury (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- 4.84% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.85% in Oct 2026?
58%
Open · ~$78 24h · ~$114 vol
last
Ask 59¢
- 4.85% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.86% in Oct 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$23 24h · ~$126 vol
Ask 62¢
- 4.76% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.77% in Oct 2026?
28%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$329 vol
last
Ask 38¢
- 4.77% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.78% in Oct 2026?
15%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$45 vol
last
Ask 39¢
- 4.78% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.79% in Oct 2026?
13%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$379 vol
last
Ask 40¢
- 4.79% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.80% in Oct 2026?
27%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$110 vol
last
Ask 42¢
- 4.8% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.81% in Oct 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 48¢
- 4.81% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.82% in Oct 2026?
31%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$22 vol
last
Ask 51¢
- 4.82% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.83% in Oct 2026?
29%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$208 vol
last
Ask 52¢
- 4.83% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.84% in Oct 2026?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 57¢
- 4.86% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.87% in Oct 2026?
44%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$38 vol
wide spread 16–65%
Bid 16¢ · Ask 65¢
- 4.87% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.88% in Oct 2026?
28%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$84 vol
last
Ask 66¢
- 4.88% or below
Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.89% in Oct 2026?
50%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$228 vol
wide spread 15–70%
Bid 15¢ · Ask 70¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 30, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.88% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.