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MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?

Openone winner

Q3 2026 through Q4 2033

Selected outcome

At least 15%

25%

At least 15% · 25%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Jan 26, 2034 ET
Resolution source
Bureau of Economic Analysis (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

  • Below 15%

    Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

    75%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$5 vol

    Bid 70¢ · Ask 80¢

    Open full market view →
  • At least 15%

    Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%?

    25%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$35 vol

    Bid 20¢ · Ask 30¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
~$0
Volume
~$39
Liquidity
—
Open int.
71 contracts

How this resolves

One winner.

Scheduled end
Jan 26, 2034 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.

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