Selected outcome
Magnitude of at least 6.0
Yes
Magnitude of at least 6.0 · Yes
- Scheduled end
- Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- the United States Geological Survey (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Magnitude of at least 6.2
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · ~$2,319 24h · ~$5,854 vol
- Magnitude of at least 5.2
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · ~$555 24h · ~$2,160 vol
- Magnitude of at least 6.4
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
No
Settled · no · ~$287 24h · ~$1,149 vol
- Magnitude of at least 6.0
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · ~$278 24h · ~$2,806 vol
- Magnitude of at least 6.6
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
No
Settled · no · ~$84 24h · ~$215 vol
- Magnitude of at least 7.0
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
No
Settled · no · ~$14 24h · ~$31 vol
- Magnitude of at least 6.8
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
No
Settled · no · ~$3 24h · ~$6 vol
- Magnitude of at least 5.4
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · ~$0 24h · ~$2,639 vol
- Magnitude of at least 5.6
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · ~$0 24h · ~$2,470 vol
- Magnitude of at least 5.8
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · ~$0 24h · ~$2,499 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
Settled
- Scheduled end
- Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 20, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.