Selected outcome
Magnitude of at least 5.6
31%
Magnitude of at least 5.6 · 31%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 21, 7:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- the United States Geological Survey (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Magnitude of at least 5.4
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
46%
Open · ~$568 24h · ~$568 vol
Bid 44¢ · Ask 48¢
- Magnitude of at least 5.8
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
28%
Open · ~$76 24h · ~$76 vol
Bid 25¢ · Ask 31¢
- Magnitude of at least 5.6
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
31%
Open · ~$66 24h · ~$67 vol
Bid 27¢ · Ask 34¢
- Magnitude of at least 6.0
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
19%
Open · ~$41 24h · ~$41 vol
Bid 14¢ · Ask 23¢
- Magnitude of at least 6.2
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
14%
Open · ~$28 24h · ~$28 vol
Bid 10¢ · Ask 19¢
- Magnitude of at least 6.8
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
7%
Open · ~$21 24h · ~$21 vol
Bid 3¢ · Ask 10¢
- Magnitude of at least 7.0
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
5%
Open · ~$21 24h · ~$21 vol
Bid 3¢ · Ask 7¢
- Magnitude of at least 6.6
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
10%
Open · ~$19 24h · ~$19 vol
Bid 5¢ · Ask 14¢
- Magnitude of at least 6.4
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
10%
Open · ~$19 24h · ~$19 vol
Bid 8¢ · Ask 11¢
Resolved
- Magnitude of at least 5.2
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · ~$709 24h · ~$709 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 21, 7:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 21, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.