Selected outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
8%
Before Jan 1, 2027 · 8%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Semafor (opens in a new tab)
Price
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Markets
- Before Jan 1, 2027
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2027?
8%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$53 vol
Bid 4¢ · Ask 12¢
- Before Jan 1, 2028
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2028?
32%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$82 vol
Bid 28¢ · Ask 36¢
- Before Jan 1, 2029
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2029?
55%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$493 vol
Bid 50¢ · Ask 59¢
- Before Jan 1, 2030
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2030?
69%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$56 vol
Bid 65¢ · Ask 72¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.