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How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

Open

By 2028

Selected outcome

Below 7.60

85%

Below 7.60 · 85%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
May 17, 2029 ET
Resolution source
The Economist (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

  • Below 7.00

    Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

    34%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2,845 vol

    Bid 32¢ · Ask 36¢

    Open full market view →
  • Below 7.25

    Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

    39%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2,195 vol

    Bid 37¢ · Ask 40¢

    Open full market view →
  • Below 7.50

    Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

    66%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$8,298 vol

    Bid 63¢ · Ask 68¢

    Open full market view →
  • Below 7.60

    Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028

    85%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$16k vol

    Bid 82¢ · Ask 88¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
~$0
Volume
~$30k
Liquidity
—
Open int.
16k contracts

How this resolves

Scheduled end
May 17, 2029 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

If the United States falls below 7.60 in any year between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive) on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes.

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