Selected outcome
Above 4.50%
7%
Above 4.50% · 7%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Jan 4, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Above 3.50%
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?
99%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,490 vol
last
Bid 99¢
- Above 3.75%
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.75%?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2,296 vol
Bid 11¢
- Above 4.00%
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.00%?
84%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$546 vol
wide spread 68–99%
Bid 68¢ · Ask 99¢
- Above 4.25%
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.25%?
28%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$73 vol
wide spread 5–30%
Bid 5¢ · Ask 30¢
- Above 4.50%
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.50%?
7%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$134 vol
Bid 4¢ · Ask 9¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Jan 4, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.