Selected outcome
Recession
9%
Recession · 9%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 29, 10:00 AM ET
- Resolution source
- Federal Reserve (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Family Fight / Family Feud
Will Kevin Warsh say Family Fight / Family Feud at his Oct 2026 press conference?
38%
Open · ~$62 24h · ~$105 vol
Bid 35¢ · Ask 40¢
- Inflation Expectation
Will Kevin Warsh say Inflation Expectation at his Oct 2026 press conference?
63%
Open · ~$42 24h · ~$257 vol
Bid 61¢ · Ask 64¢
- Uncertainty
Will Kevin Warsh say Uncertainty at his Oct 2026 press conference?
70%
Open · ~$40 24h · ~$2,630 vol
Bid 69¢ · Ask 70¢
- Independent / Independence
Will Kevin Warsh say Independent / Independence at his Oct 2026 press conference?
68%
Open · ~$24 24h · ~$92 vol
Bid 65¢ · Ask 70¢
- Geopolitical
Will Kevin Warsh say Geopolitical at his Oct 2026 press conference?
57%
Open · ~$23 24h · ~$384 vol
Bid 54¢ · Ask 60¢
- Balance Sheet
Will Kevin Warsh say Balance Sheet at his Oct 2026 press conference?
66%
Open · ~$14 24h · ~$593 vol
Bid 62¢ · Ask 69¢
- Unchanged
Will Kevin Warsh say Unchanged at his Oct 2026 press conference?
30%
Open · ~$14 24h · ~$516 vol
Bid 26¢ · Ask 33¢
- Renovation
Will Kevin Warsh say Renovation at his Oct 2026 press conference?
3%
Open · ~$12 24h · ~$48 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 3¢
- President
Will Kevin Warsh say President at his Oct 2026 press conference?
56%
Open · ~$11 24h · ~$312 vol
Bid 55¢ · Ask 56¢
- Anchor / Anchored
Will Kevin Warsh say Anchor / Anchored at his Oct 2026 press conference?
63%
Open · ~$9 24h · ~$520 vol
Bid 62¢ · Ask 63¢
- Productivity
Will Kevin Warsh say Productivity at his Oct 2026 press conference?
80%
Open · ~$9 24h · ~$5,109 vol
Bid 78¢ · Ask 82¢
- Trump
Will Kevin Warsh say Trump at his Oct 2026 press conference?
7%
Open · ~$7 24h · ~$169 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 7¢
- Softening
Will Kevin Warsh say Softening at his Oct 2026 press conference?
21%
Open · ~$4 24h · ~$129 vol
Bid 18¢ · Ask 23¢
- Oil
Will Kevin Warsh say Oil at his Oct 2026 press conference?
61%
Open · ~$4 24h · ~$294 vol
Bid 60¢ · Ask 61¢
- Diesel
Will Kevin Warsh say Diesel at his Oct 2026 press conference?
7%
Open · ~$3 24h · ~$79 vol
Bid 4¢ · Ask 9¢
- Good Afternoon
Will Kevin Warsh say Good Afternoon at his Oct 2026 press conference?
5%
Open · ~$3 24h · ~$67 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 8¢
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
Will Kevin Warsh say AI / Artificial Intelligence at his Oct 2026 press conference?
81%
Open · ~$2 24h · ~$5,790 vol
Bid 78¢ · Ask 83¢
- Shock
Will Kevin Warsh say Shock at his Oct 2026 press conference?
78%
Open · ~$2 24h · ~$3,028 vol
Bid 74¢ · Ask 81¢
- Tax
Will Kevin Warsh say Tax at his Oct 2026 press conference?
6%
Open · ~$2 24h · ~$52 vol
Bid 4¢ · Ask 7¢
- Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Will Kevin Warsh say Crypto / Cryptocurrency at his Oct 2026 press conference?
3%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$15 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 4¢
- Gold
Will Kevin Warsh say Gold at his Oct 2026 press conference?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$33 vol
Bid 3¢ · Ask 4¢
- Stagflation
Will Kevin Warsh say Stagflation at his Oct 2026 press conference?
3%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$3 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 5¢
- Japan / Japanese / Yen
Will Kevin Warsh say Japan / Japanese / Yen at his Oct 2026 press conference?
2%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$10 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 3¢
- National Debt
Will Kevin Warsh say National Debt at his Oct 2026 press conference?
3%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$44 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 4¢
- ADP
Will Kevin Warsh say ADP at his Oct 2026 press conference?
2%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$14 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 3¢
- Bitcoin
Will Kevin Warsh say Bitcoin at his Oct 2026 press conference?
2%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$3 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 3¢
- Central Bank
Will Kevin Warsh say Central Bank at his Oct 2026 press conference?
94%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$4,960 vol
Bid 91¢ · Ask 96¢
- Commodity
Will Kevin Warsh say Commodity at his Oct 2026 press conference?
39%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$210 vol
Bid 38¢ · Ask 39¢
- Consumer Confidence
Will Kevin Warsh say Consumer Confidence at his Oct 2026 press conference?
3%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$44 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 5¢
- Credit
Will Kevin Warsh say Credit at his Oct 2026 press conference?
53%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$6,116 vol
Bid 52¢ · Ask 53¢
- Dissent
Will Kevin Warsh say Dissent at his Oct 2026 press conference?
9%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$51 vol
Bid 5¢ · Ask 12¢
- Dollar
Will Kevin Warsh say Dollar at his Oct 2026 press conference?
41%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$327 vol
Bid 39¢ · Ask 43¢
- Egg
Will Kevin Warsh say Egg at his Oct 2026 press conference?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$19 vol
Bid 3¢ · Ask 4¢
- Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
Will Kevin Warsh say Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas at his Oct 2026 press conference?
21%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$253 vol
Bid 19¢ · Ask 23¢
- Good Day
Will Kevin Warsh say Good Day at his Oct 2026 press conference?
95%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$3,248 vol
Bid 93¢ · Ask 96¢
- Iran
Will Kevin Warsh say Iran at his Oct 2026 press conference?
13%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$114 vol
Bid 10¢ · Ask 15¢
- Event does not qualify
Will Kevin Warsh say Event does not qualify at his Oct 2026 press conference?
1%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$11 vol
last
Ask 1¢
- Pandemic
Will Kevin Warsh say Pandemic at his Oct 2026 press conference?
30%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$56 vol
Bid 26¢ · Ask 33¢
- Probability
Will Kevin Warsh say Probability at his Oct 2026 press conference?
14%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$51 vol
Bid 11¢ · Ask 16¢
- Projection
Will Kevin Warsh say Projection at his Oct 2026 press conference?
37%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$629 vol
Bid 36¢ · Ask 37¢
- QE / Quantitative Easing
Will Kevin Warsh say QE / Quantitative Easing at his Oct 2026 press conference?
7%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$4 vol
Bid 5¢ · Ask 9¢
- QT / Quantitative Tightening
Will Kevin Warsh say QT / Quantitative Tightening at his Oct 2026 press conference?
8%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$5 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 10¢
- Recession
Will Kevin Warsh say Recession at his Oct 2026 press conference?
9%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$31 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 12¢
- Restrictive
Will Kevin Warsh say Restrictive at his Oct 2026 press conference?
80%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$5,794 vol
Bid 77¢ · Ask 82¢
- Risk Management
Will Kevin Warsh say Risk Management at his Oct 2026 press conference?
13%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$45 vol
Bid 11¢ · Ask 15¢
- Shutdown / Shut Down
Will Kevin Warsh say Shutdown / Shut Down at his Oct 2026 press conference?
7%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$12 vol
Bid 3¢ · Ask 10¢
- Volatility
Will Kevin Warsh say Volatility at his Oct 2026 press conference?
8%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$31 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 10¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 29, 10:00 AM ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Recession at his Oct 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.