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2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

Openone winner

House popular vote margin minus final VoteHub generic ballot margin

Selected outcome

R+0.9 to D+0.9

28%

R+0.9 to D+0.9 · 28%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Mar 1, 2027 ET
Resolution source
Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

  • D+1 to D+2.9

    Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

    17%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1 vol

    Bid 14¢ · Ask 19¢

    Open full market view →
  • D+3 to D+4.9

    Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

    6%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol

    Bid 2¢ · Ask 10¢

    Open full market view →
  • D+5 to D+6.9

    Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 5 to 6.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

    5%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2 vol

    Bid 2¢ · Ask 8¢

    Open full market view →
  • D+7 or more

    Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?

    6%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol

    Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢

    Open full market view →
  • R+1 to R+2.9

    Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

    15%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol

    Bid 11¢ · Ask 19¢

    Open full market view →
  • R+3 to R+4.9

    Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

    7%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol

    Bid 3¢ · Ask 11¢

    Open full market view →
  • R+5 to R+6.9

    Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 5 to 6.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

    4%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol

    Bid 1¢ · Ask 7¢

    Open full market view →
  • R+7 or more

    Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?

    3%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol

    Bid 1¢ · Ask 5¢

    Open full market view →
  • R+0.9 to D+0.9

    Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?

    28%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,544 vol

    Bid 27¢ · Ask 29¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
~$0
Volume
~$1,547
Liquidity
—
Open int.
3,394 contracts

How this resolves

One winner.

Scheduled end
Mar 1, 2027 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved

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