Selected outcome
Before Jan 1, 2029
last
93%
Before Jan 1, 2029 · 93%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Federal Government of Germany (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Before Jan 1, 2028
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?
43%
Open · ~$100 24h · ~$830 vol
Bid 39¢ · Ask 47¢
- Before Apr 1, 2027
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?
13%
Open · ~$52 24h · ~$331 vol
Bid 9¢ · Ask 16¢
- Before Nov 1, 2026
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Nov 1, 2026?
1%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$52 vol
last
Ask 2¢
- Before Jan 1, 2027
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?
8%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$915 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 10¢
- Before Jul 1, 2027
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027?
27%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$535 vol
Bid 23¢ · Ask 31¢
- Before Jul 1, 2028
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2028?
54%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$409 vol
Bid 50¢ · Ask 58¢
- Before Jan 1, 2029
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029?
93%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$546 vol
last
Bid 79¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.