Selected outcome
Mike Thompson, 15+ pts
wide spread 7–18%
Mike Thompson, 15+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- the California Secretary of State (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Mike Thompson, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 1 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 63–75%
Bid 63¢ · Ask 75¢
- Mike Thompson, 10+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 10 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$82 vol
wide spread 24–36%
Bid 24¢ · Ask 36¢
- Mike Thompson, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 7–18%
Bid 6.7¢ · Ask 18¢
- Mike Thompson, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 20 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 9.9¢
- Mike Thompson, 25+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 25 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.8¢
- Mike Thompson, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 30 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.1¢
- Mike Thompson, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Mike Thompson in CA-04 be at least 5 percentage points?
56%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$153 vol
Bid 54¢ · Ask 57¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.