Selected outcome
Scott Wiener, 4+ pts
wide spread 56–68%
63%
Scott Wiener, 4+ pts · 63%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- the California Secretary of State (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Scott Wiener, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 1 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 69–81%
Bid 69¢ · Ask 81¢
- Scott Wiener, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 12 percentage points?
21%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$87 vol
Bid 18¢ · Ask 24¢
- Scott Wiener, 16+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 16 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$3 vol
wide spread 7–18%
Bid 6.6¢ · Ask 18¢
- Scott Wiener, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 20 percentage points?
10%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$24 vol
wide spread <1–11%
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 11¢
- Scott Wiener, 4+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 4 percentage points?
63%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$302 vol
wide spread 56–68%
Bid 56¢ · Ask 68¢
- Scott Wiener, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Scott Wiener in CA-11 be at least 8 percentage points?
47%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$43 vol
wide spread 38–49%
Bid 38¢ · Ask 49¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.