Selected outcome
Luz Rivas, 40+ pts
4%
Luz Rivas, 40+ pts · 4%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- the California Secretary of State (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Luz Rivas, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Luz Rivas in CA-29 be at least 1 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 87–99%
Bid 87¢ · Ask 98.8¢
- Luz Rivas, 10+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Luz Rivas in CA-29 be at least 10 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 46–58%
Bid 46¢ · Ask 58¢
- Luz Rivas, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Luz Rivas in CA-29 be at least 15 percentage points?
21%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$42 vol
wide spread 17–29%
Bid 17¢ · Ask 29¢
- Luz Rivas, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Luz Rivas in CA-29 be at least 20 percentage points?
10%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$20 vol
wide spread 1–12%
Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 12¢
- Luz Rivas, 25+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Luz Rivas in CA-29 be at least 25 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$13 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.8¢
- Luz Rivas, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Luz Rivas in CA-29 be at least 30 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.2¢
- Luz Rivas, 35+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Luz Rivas in CA-29 be at least 35 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.1¢
- Luz Rivas, 40+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Luz Rivas in CA-29 be at least 40 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6¢
- Luz Rivas, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Luz Rivas in CA-29 be at least 5 percentage points?
77%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 75¢ · Ask 78¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If Luz Rivas wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 29th District by 40 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.