Selected outcome
Ken Calvert, 5+ pts
wide spread 28–40%
Ken Calvert, 5+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- the California Secretary of State (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Ken Calvert, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in CA-40 be at least 1 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 45–57%
Bid 45¢ · Ask 57¢
- Ken Calvert, 10+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in CA-40 be at least 10 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$72 vol
wide spread 11–22%
Bid 11¢ · Ask 22¢
- Ken Calvert, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in CA-40 be at least 15 percentage points?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 11¢
- Ken Calvert, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in CA-40 be at least 20 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 7.4¢
- Ken Calvert, 25+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in CA-40 be at least 25 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.2¢
- Ken Calvert, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in CA-40 be at least 30 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.1¢
- Ken Calvert, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Ken Calvert in CA-40 be at least 5 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$86 vol
wide spread 28–40%
Bid 28¢ · Ask 40¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If Ken Calvert wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 40th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.