Selected outcome
Tran, 28+ pts
5%
Tran, 28+ pts · 5%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Tran, 10+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 45th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?
68%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$136 vol
wide spread 61–73%
Bid 61¢ · Ask 73¢
- Tran, 13+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 45th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?
55%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$102 vol
Bid 51¢ · Ask 59¢
- Tran, 16+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 45th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?
32%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$64 vol
wide spread 32–44%
Bid 32¢ · Ask 44¢
- Tran, 19+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 45th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 19–31%
Bid 19¢ · Ask 31¢
- Tran, 22+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 45th District House election be at least 22 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 8–20%
Bid 8.4¢ · Ask 20¢
- Tran, 25+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 45th District House election be at least 25 percentage points?
10%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 1–13%
Bid 1.3¢ · Ask 13¢
- Tran, 28+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 45th District House election be at least 28 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 9¢
- Tran, 4+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 45th District House election be at least 4 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 83–94%
Bid 83¢ · Ask 94.1¢
- Tran, 7+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 45th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 73–85%
Bid 73¢ · Ask 85¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 45th District by 28 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.