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California Governor margin of victory

Open

California Governor

Selected outcome

Democrats, 18+ pts

66%

Democrats, 18+ pts · 66%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Nov 3, 2027 ET
Resolution source
California Secretary of State (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

  • Democrats, 12+ pts

    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in California be at least 12 percentage points?

    90%

    Open · ~$1,110 24h · ~$1,590 vol

    Bid 87¢ · Ask 93.7¢

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  • Democrats, 15+ pts

    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in California be at least 15 percentage points?

    82%

    Open · ~$262 24h · ~$2,824 vol

    Bid 80¢ · Ask 84¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, 21+ pts

    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in California be at least 21 percentage points?

    52%

    Open · ~$118 24h · ~$425 vol

    Bid 50¢ · Ask 53¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, 18+ pts

    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in California be at least 18 percentage points?

    66%

    Open · ~$106 24h · ~$785 vol

    Bid 62¢ · Ask 70¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, 9+ pts

    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in California be at least 9 percentage points?

    95%

    Open · ~$96 24h · ~$465 vol

    Bid 90.3¢ · Ask 98.7¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, 30+ pts

    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in California be at least 30 percentage points?

    11%

    Open · ~$12 24h · ~$53 vol

    wide spread 8–19%

    Bid 8.4¢ · Ask 19¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, 27+ pts

    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in California be at least 27 percentage points?

    25%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$110 vol

    Bid 20¢ · Ask 30¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, 24+ pts

    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in California be at least 24 percentage points?

    38%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$261 vol

    Bid 35¢ · Ask 41¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, 33+ pts

    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in California be at least 33 percentage points?

    7%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$6 vol

    wide spread 2–13%

    Bid 1.6¢ · Ask 13¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, 36+ pts

    Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in California be at least 36 percentage points?

    5%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$9 vol

    Bid 1.1¢ · Ask 9.3¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
~$1,704
Volume
~$6,529
Liquidity
—
Open int.
6,343 contracts

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Nov 3, 2027 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 18 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

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