Selected outcome
Case, 54+ pts
wide spread 3–15%
12%
Case, 54+ pts · 12%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Case, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House election be at least 30 percentage points?
96%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$550 vol
Bid 93.1¢ · Ask 99.6¢
- Case, 33+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House election be at least 33 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$22 vol
wide spread 87–98%
Bid 87¢ · Ask 98.4¢
- Case, 36+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House election be at least 36 percentage points?
83%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$171 vol
Bid 78¢ · Ask 88¢
- Case, 39+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House election be at least 39 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$13 vol
wide spread 70–82%
Bid 70¢ · Ask 82¢
- Case, 42+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House election be at least 42 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 58–70%
Bid 58¢ · Ask 70¢
- Case, 45+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House election be at least 45 percentage points?
55%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$113 vol
wide spread 46–57%
Bid 46¢ · Ask 57¢
- Case, 48+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House election be at least 48 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 28–40%
Bid 28¢ · Ask 40¢
- Case, 51+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House election be at least 51 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 14–26%
Bid 14¢ · Ask 26¢
- Case, 54+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Hawaii's 1st District House election be at least 54 percentage points?
12%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$114 vol
wide spread 3–15%
Bid 3.4¢ · Ask 15¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Hawaii's 1st District by 54 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.