Selected outcome
McGowan, 12+ pts
84%
McGowan, 12+ pts · 84%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- McGowan, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
96%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 92.7¢ · Ask 98.9¢
- McGowan, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
95%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 91.2¢ · Ask 98.7¢
- McGowan, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
84%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$840 vol
Bid 83¢ · Ask 85¢
- McGowan, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
75%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 73¢ · Ask 76¢
- McGowan, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
64%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 60¢ · Ask 67¢
- McGowan, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
47%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$28 vol
wide spread 45–56%
Bid 45¢ · Ask 56¢
- McGowan, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
42%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2 vol
wide spread 31–42%
Bid 31¢ · Ask 42¢
- McGowan, 27+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 27 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$10 vol
wide spread 17–29%
Bid 17¢ · Ask 29¢
- McGowan, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 30 percentage points?
15%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$194 vol
wide spread 8–19%
Bid 7.5¢ · Ask 19¢
- McGowan, 33+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 33 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$73 vol
wide spread <1–12%
Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 12¢
- McGowan, 36+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Iowa's 4th District House election be at least 36 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 8.3¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Iowa's 4th District by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.