Selected outcome
Garcia, 36+ pts
wide spread 51–63%
Garcia, 36+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- Garcia, 27+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 4th District House election be at least 27 percentage points?
94%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$3,268 vol
wide spread 89–>99%
Bid 89¢ · Ask 99.8¢
- Garcia, 30+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 4th District House election be at least 30 percentage points?
87%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$4 vol
Bid 83¢ · Ask 90¢
- Garcia, 33+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 4th District House election be at least 33 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 68–79%
Bid 68¢ · Ask 79¢
- Garcia, 36+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 4th District House election be at least 36 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 51–63%
Bid 51¢ · Ask 63¢
- Garcia, 39+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 4th District House election be at least 39 percentage points?
33%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$66 vol
wide spread 31–43%
Bid 31¢ · Ask 43¢
- Garcia, 42+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 4th District House election be at least 42 percentage points?
23%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$23 vol
wide spread 14–26%
Bid 14¢ · Ask 26¢
- Garcia, 45+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 4th District House election be at least 45 percentage points?
10%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$19 vol
wide spread 3–14%
Bid 2.6¢ · Ask 14¢
- Garcia, 48+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 4th District House election be at least 48 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1 vol
Ask 8.7¢
- Garcia, 51+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Illinois's 4th District House election be at least 51 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$286 vol
Ask 6.6¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Illinois's 4th District by 36 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.