Selected outcome
Smith, 31+ pts
wide spread 23–34%
32%
Smith, 31+ pts · 32%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Smith, 13+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New Jersey's 4th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?
95%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$6 vol
Bid 90.2¢ · Ask 99.7¢
- Smith, 16+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New Jersey's 4th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 86–97%
Bid 86¢ · Ask 97.2¢
- Smith, 19+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New Jersey's 4th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 77–88%
Bid 77¢ · Ask 88¢
- Smith, 22+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New Jersey's 4th District House election be at least 22 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 66–78%
Bid 66¢ · Ask 78¢
- Smith, 25+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New Jersey's 4th District House election be at least 25 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$176 vol
wide spread 51–63%
Bid 51¢ · Ask 63¢
- Smith, 28+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New Jersey's 4th District House election be at least 28 percentage points?
45%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$135 vol
wide spread 37–48%
Bid 37¢ · Ask 48¢
- Smith, 31+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New Jersey's 4th District House election be at least 31 percentage points?
32%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$179 vol
wide spread 23–34%
Bid 23¢ · Ask 34¢
- Smith, 34+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New Jersey's 4th District House election be at least 34 percentage points?
17%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$53 vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 21¢
- Smith, 37+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the New Jersey's 4th District House election be at least 37 percentage points?
13%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$36 vol
wide spread 2–14%
Bid 2.3¢ · Ask 14¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Jersey's 4th District by 31 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.