Selected outcome
Before 2030
40%
Before 2030 · 40%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Physical Review X (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Before 2030
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
40%
Open · ~$10 24h · ~$7,028 vol
Bid 37.3¢ · Ask 42.7¢
- Before 2027
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
1%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$42 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 1.9¢
- Before 2035
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
51%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$4,185 vol
Bid 48.5¢ · Ask 54.3¢
- Before 2040
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
62%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,870 vol
Bid 61¢ · Ask 62.1¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.