Selected outcome
1.5°C to 1.9°C
2%
1.5°C to 1.9°C · 2%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Aug 15, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- At least 3.0°C
Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be at least 3.0°C?
21%
Open · ~$932 24h · ~$10k vol
Bid 20¢ · Ask 21¢
- 2.5°C to 2.9°C
Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.5°C and 2.9°C?
73%
Open · ~$231 24h · ~$31k vol
Bid 72¢ · Ask 73¢
- 2.0°C to 2.4°C
Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.0°C and 2.4°C?
7%
Open · ~$3 24h · ~$1,895 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 7¢
- 1.5°C to 1.9°C
Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 1.5°C and 1.9°C?
2%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$61 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 2¢
- Below 1.5°C
Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be below 1.5°C?
2%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$34 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 2¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Aug 15, 2027 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is between 1.5 and 1.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.