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Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

Open

Taiwan Travel Advisory

Selected outcome

Before Jan 1, 2028

20%

Before Jan 1, 2028 · 20%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
Resolution source
the U.S. State Department (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

  • Before Jan 1, 2030

    Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?

    41%

    Open · ~$10 24h · ~$9,610 vol

    Bid 40¢ · Ask 42¢

    Open full market view →
  • Before Jan 1, 2027

    Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?

    2%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$5,295 vol

    Bid 1.3¢ · Ask 2.9¢

    Open full market view →
  • Before Jan 1, 2028

    Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?

    20%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$8,937 vol

    Bid 19¢ · Ask 21¢

    Open full market view →
  • Before Jan 1, 2029

    Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029?

    29%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$6,452 vol

    Bid 28¢ · Ask 30¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
~$10
Volume
~$30k
Liquidity
—
Open int.
151k contracts

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

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