Selected outcome
Amazon
16%
Amazon · 16%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2029 ET
- Resolution source
- Artificial Analysis (opens in a new tab)
Price
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Markets
- MiniMax
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
45%
Open · ~$1 24h · ~$1 vol
Bid 41¢ · Ask 49¢
- Alibaba
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
30%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 26¢ · Ask 34¢
- Amazon
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
16%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 19¢
- Arcee AI
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Baidu
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
60%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 56¢ · Ask 64¢
- ByteDance
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
25%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 21¢ · Ask 29¢
- China Mobile
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Cohere
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- DeepSeek
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
45%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 41¢ · Ask 49¢
- Essential AI
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Google
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
78%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 74¢ · Ask 82¢
- Huawei
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
11%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 7¢ · Ask 14¢
- Institute of Foundation Models
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- InclusionAI
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Inception
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- LG AI Research
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- LongCat
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Meta
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
61%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 57¢ · Ask 65¢
- Moonshot
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
45%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 41¢ · Ask 49¢
- Microsoft
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
16%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 19¢
- Mistral
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
9%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 5¢ · Ask 12¢
- NVIDIA
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- OpenAI
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
85%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 81¢ · Ask 89¢
- Prime Intellect
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Reflection AI
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Safe Superintelligence
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- StepFun
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Tencent
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
55%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 51¢ · Ask 59¢
- Thinking Machines
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- Upstage
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 2¢ · Ask 9¢
- xAI
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
40%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 36¢ · Ask 44¢
- Xiaomi
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
60%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 56¢ · Ask 64¢
- Z AI
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
45%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$5 vol
Bid 41¢ · Ask 49¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2029 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If Amazon has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.