Selected outcome
Formal USMCA amendment
16%
Formal USMCA amendment · 16%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- The Washington Post (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Formal 16-year extension
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?
17%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$631 vol
Bid 14¢ · Ask 20¢
- Formal USMCA amendment
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 before Jan 1, 2027?
16%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$179 vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 20¢
- Canadian withdrawal notice
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?
7%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$87 vol
Bid 4¢ · Ask 9¢
- Mexican withdrawal notice
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?
9%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$37 vol
Bid 5¢ · Ask 13¢
- Trilateral revised deal
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?
26%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$167 vol
Bid 23¢ · Ask 29¢
- U.S.–Canada interim agreement
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?
28%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$104 vol
Bid 24¢ · Ask 32¢
- U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?
37%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$235 vol
Bid 32¢ · Ask 41¢
- U.S. withdrawal notice
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?
17%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$312 vol
Bid 13¢ · Ask 20¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.