Selected outcome
more than 13
12%
more than 13 · 12%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
≤6Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
10%
Open · $211 24h · $1,135 vol
Bid 6¢ · Ask 13¢
7Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
11%
Open · $130 24h · $482 vol
Bid 8¢ · Ask 13¢
8Will there be 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
14%
Open · $242 24h · $530 vol
Bid 13¢ · Ask 16¢
9Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
16%
Open · $94 24h · $321 vol
Bid 14¢ · Ask 17¢
10Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
15%
Open · $160 24h · $362 vol
Bid 14¢ · Ask 16¢
11Will there be 11 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
12%
Open · $114 24h · $301 vol
Bid 9¢ · Ask 14¢
12Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
7%
Open · $50 24h · $330 vol
Bid 5¢ · Ask 9¢
13Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
6%
Open · $42 24h · $202 vol
Bid 3¢ · Ask 8¢
more than 13Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
12%
Open · $274 24h · $1,943 vol
Bid 9¢ · Ask 15¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.