Selected outcome
1
30%
1 · 30%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
0Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
55%
Open · $488 24h · $3,407 vol
Bid 54¢ · Ask 56¢
1Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
30%
Open · $228 24h · $1,043 vol
Bid 28¢ · Ask 32¢
2Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
6%
Open · $67 24h · $893 vol
Bid 4¢ · Ask 8¢
3Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
4%
Open · $23 24h · $320 vol
Bid 3.1¢ · Ask 4.7¢
4Will there be 4 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
3%
Open · $5 24h · $180 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 5¢
5Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
<1%
Open · $5 24h · $270 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.8¢
more than 5Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
1%
Open · $28 24h · $272 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 0.9¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.