Selected outcome
October 31
2%
October 31 · 2%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
Price
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Markets
December 31IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
15%
Open · $44k 24h · $106k vol
Bid 14¢ · Ask 16¢
October 31IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?
2%
Open · $2,164 24h · $102k vol
Bid 1.7¢ · Ask 1.9¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.