Selected outcome
November 30
11%
November 30 · 11%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 31Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
4%
Open · $25 24h · $267k vol
Bid 4¢ · Ask 4.2¢
December 31Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
21%
Open · $515 24h · $234k vol
Bid 20¢ · Ask 22¢
November 30Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?
11%
Open · $465 24h · $27k vol
Bid 10¢ · Ask 12¢
Resolved
October 15Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $84k vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.