Selected outcome
December 31
wide spread 15–58%
December 31
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
Price
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Markets
October 31Screwworm National Emergency declared by October 31?
7%
Open · $0 24h · $4,325 vol
Bid 6.5¢ · Ask 7.2¢
December 31Screwworm National Emergency declared by December 31?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $4,954 vol
wide spread 15–58%
Bid 15¢ · Ask 58¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
