Selected outcome
Super Heavy booster explodes?
32%
Super Heavy booster explodes? · 32%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 31, 2026Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?
4%
Open · $1,022 24h · $12k vol
Bid 3.2¢ · Ask 4.7¢
- November 30, 2026
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?
73%
Open · $405 24h · $6,617 vol
Bid 70¢ · Ask 75¢
- Super Heavy booster explodes?
Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?
32%
Open · $285 24h · $2,325 vol
Bid 31¢ · Ask 32¢
- Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?
64%
Open · $389 24h · $4,837 vol
Bid 63¢ · Ask 64¢
- Chopsticks catch Starship?
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
62%
Open · $478 24h · $6,546 vol
Bid 61¢ · Ask 63¢
- Successful splash down?
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $840 vol
wide spread 16–45%
Bid 16¢ · Ask 45¢
- November 15, 2026
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?
17%
Open · $25 24h · $4,393 vol
wide spread 10–33%
Bid 10¢ · Ask 33¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.