Selected outcome
November 15, 2026
wide spread 10–33%
17%
November 15, 2026 · 17%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
October 31, 2026Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026?
4%
Open · $1,022 24h · $12k vol
Bid 3.2¢ · Ask 4.7¢
- November 30, 2026
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?
73%
Open · $405 24h · $6,617 vol
Bid 70¢ · Ask 75¢
- Super Heavy booster explodes?
Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?
32%
Open · $285 24h · $2,325 vol
Bid 31¢ · Ask 32¢
- Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?
64%
Open · $389 24h · $4,837 vol
Bid 63¢ · Ask 64¢
- Chopsticks catch Starship?
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
62%
Open · $478 24h · $6,546 vol
Bid 61¢ · Ask 63¢
- Successful splash down?
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $840 vol
wide spread 16–45%
Bid 16¢ · Ask 45¢
- November 15, 2026
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?
17%
Open · $25 24h · $4,393 vol
wide spread 10–33%
Bid 10¢ · Ask 33¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the 15th SpaceX Starship flight test lifts off from its launch pad by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Liftoff is defined as the vehicle rising off the launch mount under its own power; a static fire, a hold, or an abort after ignition does not count. Any subsequent anomaly after liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.