Selected outcome
Sloviansk
11%
Sloviansk · 11%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
SlovianskWill Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
11%
Open · $1,895 24h · $192k vol
Bid 10¢ · Ask 11¢

DruzkhivkaWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
28%
Open · $723 24h · $336k vol
Bid 28¢ · Ask 29¢
KramatorskWill Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?
13%
Open · $2,070 24h · $303k vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 13¢
KharkivWill Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $126k vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 1.5¢
KhersonWill Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?
3%
Open · $3,300 24h · $15k vol
Bid 1.6¢ · Ask 3.9¢
ZaporizhiaWill Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?
3%
Open · $1,207 24h · $225k vol
Bid 2.8¢ · Ask 4¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sloviansk (48.853751256046095° N, 37.60508085394494° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.