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Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

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Selected outcome

Kharkiv

1%

Kharkiv · 1%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • Sloviansk

    Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?

    11%

    Open · $1,895 24h · $192k vol

    Bid 10¢ · Ask 11¢

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  • Sumy

    Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?

    4%

    Open · $802 24h · $87k vol

    Bid 4¢ · Ask 4.8¢

    Open full market view →
  • Druzkhivka

    Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?

    28%

    Open · $723 24h · $336k vol

    Bid 28¢ · Ask 29¢

    Open full market view →
  • Kramatorsk

    Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?

    13%

    Open · $2,070 24h · $303k vol

    Bid 12¢ · Ask 13¢

    Open full market view →
  • Kharkiv

    Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?

    1%

    Open · $0 24h · $126k vol

    Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 1.5¢

    Open full market view →
  • Kherson

    Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $3,300 24h · $15k vol

    Bid 1.6¢ · Ask 3.9¢

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  • Zaporizhia

    Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $1,207 24h · $225k vol

    Bid 2.8¢ · Ask 4¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
$9,996
Volume
$1.7M
Liquidity
$69k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kharkiv (50.00429983749034° N, 36.31810952195039° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/m484AfKV3TTS8nB68) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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