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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Open

Democratic minus Republican national House popular vote margin

Selected outcome

Democrats, ≥10%

39%

Democrats, ≥10% · 39%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Feb 3, 2027 ET
Resolution source
Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives (opens in a new tab)

Price

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Markets

  • Democrats, ≥10%

    Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?

    39%

    Open · ~$859 24h · ~$6,651 vol

    Bid 38¢ · Ask 39¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, ≥8%

    Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?

    66%

    Open · ~$131 24h · ~$11k vol

    Bid 65¢ · Ask 66¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, ≥14%

    Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14 percentage points?

    5%

    Open · ~$10 24h · ~$27 vol

    Bid 2¢ · Ask 7¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, ≥6%

    Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?

    86%

    Open · ~$9 24h · ~$8,025 vol

    Bid 85¢ · Ask 87¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, ≥11%

    Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 11 percentage points?

    28%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1 vol

    Bid 26¢ · Ask 29¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, ≥12%

    Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 12 percentage points?

    15%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$419 vol

    Bid 14¢ · Ask 16¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, ≥16%

    Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 16 percentage points?

    3%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$23 vol

    Bid 1¢ · Ask 5¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, ≥2%

    Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?

    96%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$2,569 vol

    Bid 95¢ · Ask 97¢

    Open full market view →
  • Democrats, ≥4%

    Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?

    93%

    Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,886 vol

    Bid 91¢ · Ask 95¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
~$1,009
Volume
~$31k
Liquidity
—
Open int.
27k contracts

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Feb 3, 2027 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved

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