Selected outcome
Hill, 18+ pts
wide spread 1–11%
6%
Hill, 18+ pts · 6%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Hill, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 1 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 73–85%
Bid 73¢ · Ask 85¢
- Hill, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$310 vol
wide spread 16–28%
Bid 16¢ · Ask 28¢
- Hill, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$224 vol
wide spread 6–17%
Bid 5.6¢ · Ask 17¢
- Hill, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$22 vol
wide spread 1–11%
Bid 0.5¢ · Ask 11¢
- Hill, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 7.8¢
- Hill, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 6.5¢
- Hill, 3+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 3 percentage points?
68%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$19 vol
wide spread 63–74%
Bid 63¢ · Ask 74¢
- Hill, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
60%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$10 vol
wide spread 49–60%
Bid 49¢ · Ask 60¢
- Hill, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
35%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$81 vol
wide spread 32–43%
Bid 32¢ · Ask 43¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 2nd District by 18 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.