Selected outcome
Hill, 9+ pts
wide spread 32–43%
35%
Hill, 9+ pts · 35%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Hill, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 1 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 73–85%
Bid 73¢ · Ask 85¢
- Hill, 12+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 12 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$310 vol
wide spread 16–28%
Bid 16¢ · Ask 28¢
- Hill, 15+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 15 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$224 vol
wide spread 6–17%
Bid 5.6¢ · Ask 17¢
- Hill, 18+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 18 percentage points?
6%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$22 vol
wide spread 1–11%
Bid 0.5¢ · Ask 11¢
- Hill, 21+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 21 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 7.8¢
- Hill, 24+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 24 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Ask 6.5¢
- Hill, 3+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 3 percentage points?
68%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$19 vol
wide spread 63–74%
Bid 63¢ · Ask 74¢
- Hill, 6+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 6 percentage points?
60%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$10 vol
wide spread 49–60%
Bid 49¢ · Ask 60¢
- Hill, 9+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Arkansas's 2nd District House election be at least 9 percentage points?
35%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$81 vol
wide spread 32–43%
Bid 32¢ · Ask 43¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 2nd District by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.