Selected outcome
Shah, 14+ pts
wide spread 5–16%
13%
Shah, 14+ pts · 13%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Shah, 1+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 1 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 67–79%
Bid 67¢ · Ask 79¢
- Shah, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
16%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$233 vol
wide spread 15–27%
Bid 15¢ · Ask 27¢
- Shah, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
13%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$38 vol
wide spread 5–16%
Bid 4.8¢ · Ask 16¢
- Shah, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$47 vol
Bid 0.1¢ · Ask 9.9¢
- Shah, 2+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 2 percentage points?
60%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,679 vol
wide spread 60–72%
Bid 60¢ · Ask 72¢
- Shah, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
50%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,753 vol
Bid 45¢ · Ask 55¢
- Shah, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 1st District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
36%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,000 vol
wide spread 29–40%
Bid 29¢ · Ask 40¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 1st District by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.