Selected outcome
McGuire, 11+ pts
wide spread 68–80%
McGuire, 11+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- McGuire, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 68–80%
Bid 68¢ · Ask 80¢
- McGuire, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 55–67%
Bid 55¢ · Ask 67¢
- McGuire, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 40–52%
Bid 40¢ · Ask 52¢
- McGuire, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
34%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$102 vol
wide spread 27–39%
Bid 27¢ · Ask 39¢
- McGuire, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 14–26%
Bid 14¢ · Ask 26¢
- McGuire, 26+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 4–16%
Bid 4.2¢ · Ask 16¢
- McGuire, 29+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 29 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 9.9¢
- McGuire, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 86–98%
Bid 86¢ · Ask 97.9¢
- McGuire, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 79–90%
Bid 79¢ · Ask 90.3¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 1st District by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.