Selected outcome
McGuire, 5+ pts
wide spread 86–98%
McGuire, 5+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- McGuire, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 68–80%
Bid 68¢ · Ask 80¢
- McGuire, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 55–67%
Bid 55¢ · Ask 67¢
- McGuire, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 40–52%
Bid 40¢ · Ask 52¢
- McGuire, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
34%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$102 vol
wide spread 27–39%
Bid 27¢ · Ask 39¢
- McGuire, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 14–26%
Bid 14¢ · Ask 26¢
- McGuire, 26+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 4–16%
Bid 4.2¢ · Ask 16¢
- McGuire, 29+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 29 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 9.9¢
- McGuire, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 86–98%
Bid 86¢ · Ask 97.9¢
- McGuire, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 1st District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 79–90%
Bid 79¢ · Ask 90.3¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 1st District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.