Selected outcome
Costa, 14+ pts
wide spread 49–61%
58%
Costa, 14+ pts · 58%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Costa, 2+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 2 percentage points?
94%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 91¢ · Ask 96.7¢
- Costa, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
92%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 88¢ · Ask 96.8¢
- Costa, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
74%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$249 vol
Bid 70¢ · Ask 77¢
- Costa, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
58%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,044 vol
wide spread 49–61%
Bid 49¢ · Ask 61¢
- Costa, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
38%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$717 vol
Bid 35¢ · Ask 40¢
- Costa, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$64 vol
wide spread 21–33%
Bid 21¢ · Ask 33¢
- Costa, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1 vol
wide spread 10–21%
Bid 9.9¢ · Ask 21¢
- Costa, 26+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 2–13%
Bid 1.7¢ · Ask 13¢
- Costa, 29+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 29 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 9¢
- Costa, 32+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 32 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.9¢
- Costa, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$4 vol
wide spread 81–91%
Bid 81¢ · Ask 91.4¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 21st District by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.