Selected outcome
Costa, 5+ pts
92%
Costa, 5+ pts · 92%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
- Costa, 2+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 2 percentage points?
94%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 91¢ · Ask 96.7¢
- Costa, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
92%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 88¢ · Ask 96.8¢
- Costa, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
74%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$249 vol
Bid 70¢ · Ask 77¢
- Costa, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
58%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1,044 vol
wide spread 49–61%
Bid 49¢ · Ask 61¢
- Costa, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
38%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$717 vol
Bid 35¢ · Ask 40¢
- Costa, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$64 vol
wide spread 21–33%
Bid 21¢ · Ask 33¢
- Costa, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$1 vol
wide spread 10–21%
Bid 9.9¢ · Ask 21¢
- Costa, 26+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 2–13%
Bid 1.7¢ · Ask 13¢
- Costa, 29+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 29 percentage points?
5%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 9¢
- Costa, 32+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 32 percentage points?
4%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 6.9¢
- Costa, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 21st District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$4 vol
wide spread 81–91%
Bid 81¢ · Ask 91.4¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 21st District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.