Selected outcome
Obernolte, 23+ pts
wide spread 11–22%
Obernolte, 23+ pts
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
Price
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Markets
- Obernolte, 11+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 11 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 63–75%
Bid 63¢ · Ask 75¢
- Obernolte, 14+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 14 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 49–61%
Bid 49¢ · Ask 61¢
- Obernolte, 17+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 17 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$3 vol
wide spread 34–46%
Bid 34¢ · Ask 46¢
- Obernolte, 2+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 2 percentage points?
94%
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
Bid 89¢ · Ask 98.7¢
- Obernolte, 20+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 20 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 21–33%
Bid 21¢ · Ask 33¢
- Obernolte, 23+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 23 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 11–22%
Bid 11¢ · Ask 22¢
- Obernolte, 26+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 26 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 2–14%
Bid 2.4¢ · Ask 14¢
- Obernolte, 5+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 5 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$0 vol
wide spread 84–96%
Bid 84¢ · Ask 95.5¢
- Obernolte, 8+ pts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the California's 23rd District House election be at least 8 percentage points?
No quote
Open · ~$0 24h · ~$138 vol
wide spread 75–86%
Bid 75¢ · Ask 86¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Nov 3, 2027 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 23 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.